virus prediction

[flmont]

George Floyd,..this is most certainly a shameful thing on those police officer's( no matter who's neck it was),That justice should be between Mr.Floyd's family and that Police department, period..It's not just cause to ruin other's livelihood, and property, It just goes to show how people are being raised and educated to hate everything in this country because they weren't handed success or taught respect for other's,.. it's said, You get out of life what you put into it ,Protesting is a way to be heard,.to change thing's, you actually need to make an effort in the proper direction,..8 yrs of Obama/Biden why wasn't there change, they complain the most !! and do nothing because they like to create chaos, How's that for another Political statement !

Soap box now folded up and put away ! ( My apologies to anyone I may have offended )

[piper6909]

Originally Posted by flmont

George Floyd,..this is most certainly a shameful thing on those police officer's( no matter who's neck it was),That justice should be between Mr.Floyd's family and that Police department, period..It's not just cause to ruin other's livelihood, and property, It just goes to show how people are being raised and educated to hate everything in this country because they weren't handed success or taught respect for other's,.. it's said, You get out of life what you put into it ,Protesting is a way to be heard,.to change thing's, you actually need to make an effort in the proper direction,..8 yrs of Obama/Biden why wasn't there change, they complain the most !! and do nothing because they like to create chaos, How's that for another Political statement !

Soap box now folded up and put away ! ( My apologies to anyone I may have offended )

What a joke!

[flmont]

Originally Posted by piper6909

What a joke!

Still waiting for what was so funny

[piper6909]

Originally Posted by flmont

Still waiting for what was so funny

Nevermind, I'm trying to follow 78F350's suggestion to be kind.

[flmont]

Oh pls ..i can take it..

[Starter986]

Originally Posted by piper6909

Nevermind, I'm trying to follow 78F350's suggestion to be kind.

Oh, you are kind. Kind of a...

lol

[piper6909]

Originally Posted by Starter986

Oh, you are kind. Kind of a...

lol

I may be kind of a ...., but you're totally a ....!

Your turn.

[Starter986]

Originally Posted by piper6909

I may be kind of a ...., but you're totally a ....!

Your turn.

I've got nothing... but I accept the compliment.

Have a good day!

[Starter986]

Originally Posted by flmont

George Floyd,..this is most certainly a shameful thing on those police officer's( no matter who's neck it was),That justice should be between Mr.Floyd's family and that Police department, period..It's not just cause to ruin other's livelihood, and property, It just goes to show how people are being raised and educated to hate everything in this country because they weren't handed success or taught respect for other's,.. it's said, You get out of life what you put into it ,Protesting is a way to be heard,.to change thing's, you actually need to make an effort in the proper direction,..8 yrs of Obama/Biden why wasn't there change, they complain the most !! and do nothing because they like to create chaos, How's that for another Political statement !

Soap box now folded up and put away ! ( My apologies to anyone I may have offended )

Offended anyone? Oh, you mean Pipe! "That" anyone? Screw him.

[2ata]

The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Example; our facility closed several units in preparation for a surge in COVID cases that never happened. The units remained empty for months. Hospitalizations for our system never broke 100 with ICU cases in the mid 20's. Those closings resulted in the loss of 800 employees.

Detroit; the hospitals in downtown Detroit saw a significant influx of cases. Poorer population and a higher than average co morbidity rate played a role in that. Field hospitals were established at both COBO and Showplace in Novi. Each site was built to house 1000 cases per. At peak there were 2 cases transferred to COBO. Hospitals outside of downtown were virtual ghost towns with decreases in patient volumes.

As it sits now, testing has steadily increased thus resulting in more positive results being returned. "Cast a wider net, catch more fish." The real data that matters is not in the positive tests, it is in the hospitalization rates. For the most part overall hospitalizations are down, however, there are some locations now seeing an increase.

If we were to approach flu testing in the same manner that we are testing for COVID I believe that the positive result numbers would be very similar.

One comment on hospital morgues. It is easy to paint a grim picture using volume overwhelming the hospital morgue. In general these locations are small and not intended for volume. (I think we can hold 8 and we are a larger facility.) If you have any number of ICU cases that are critical related to COVID and then you add in the normal deaths in a hospital or incoming traumas. It's easy to run out of space.

After Katrina the DMORT team set up in Baton Rouge had 30 refrigerated semis on site for the same purpose.

[piper6909]

Originally Posted by 2ata

The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Example; our facility closed several units in preparation for a surge in COVID cases that never happened. The units remained empty for months. Hospitalizations for our system never broke 100 with ICU cases in the mid 20's. Those closings resulted in the loss of 800 employees.

Detroit; the hospitals in downtown Detroit saw a significant influx of cases. Poorer population and a higher than average co morbidity rate played a role in that. Field hospitals were established at both COBO and Showplace in Novi. Each site was built to house 1000 cases per. At peak there were 2 cases transferred to COBO. Hospitals outside of downtown were virtual ghost towns with decreases in patient volumes.

As it sits now, testing has steadily increased thus resulting in more positive results being returned. "Cast a wider net, catch more fish." The real data that matters is not in the positive tests, it is in the hospitalization rates. For the most part overall hospitalizations are down, however, there are some locations now seeing an increase.

If we were to approach flu testing in the same manner that we are testing for COVID I believe that the positive result numbers would be very similar.

One comment on hospital morgues. It is easy to paint a grim picture using volume overwhelming the hospital morgue. In general these locations are small and not intended for volume. (I think we can hold 8 and we are a larger facility.) If you have any number of ICU cases that are critical related to COVID and then you add in the normal deaths in a hospital or incoming traumas. It's easy to run out of space.

After Katrina the DMORT team set up in Baton Rouge had 30 refrigerated semis on site for the same purpose.

It's nice to have some insight from someone who is in the trenches. Thank you.

The one thing I'd like to add to "Cast a wider net, catch more fish" is that the fish are still there, regardless what size net you cast. Casting the net does not create the fish.

[2ata]

Originally Posted by piper6909

It's nice to have some insight from someone who is in the trenches. Thank you.

The one thing I'd like to add to "Cast a wider net, catch more fish" is that the fish are still there, regardless what size net you cast. Casting the net does not create the fish.

I did not deny the existence of the fish. I merely contend that does the existence of positive tests in asymptomatic patients hold any relevance other than to say.... see the numbers going up.

It focuses the wrong set of data point.

[DoninDel]

Originally Posted by 2ata

The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Is it? Don't you agree that NY and adjacent states, led by Cuomo (who I had NOT been a fan of) showed what worked and ought to have been done nationally and Georgia and Florida in particular show bad management???
Compare the curves of Europe to that of the US and it is clear we're not doing well.

As to testing showing more cases - that logic would say we should stop doing mammograms to lessen breast cancer.

In covid deaths, "We're No 1" is not where we should be.

[2ata]

Originally Posted by DoninDel

As to testing showing more cases - that logic would say we should stop doing mammograms to lessen breast cancer.

This is completely off base of what I said. I did not deny cases exist. That is not the data that matters. Infections exist get past that as asymptomatic carriers really have no clinical significance other than to say that they have an infection. Real numbers that matter are those that are having problems; hospitalizations, ICU admissions, vent or ECMO dependent.

I will not address politics.

[DoninDel]

Originally Posted by 2ata

asymptomatic carriers really have no clinical significance other than to say that they have an infection.

Except that asymptomatic carriers can infect other people - that is why it is good to know.

[piper6909]

Originally Posted by DoninDel

Except that asymptomatic carriers can infect other people - that is why it is good to know.

Exactly! To curb the spread you need to first know who the carriers are and perform contact tracing. This is precisely where we have failed miserably.