What is going on with 986 and 996 prices?

[southernstar]

Perfectlap, I agree with much of what you say in terms of the present situation. However, while your comments concerning roadsters/convertibles is true with respect to new car sales, once vehicles have become collectible it is almost invariably the roadsters/convertibles that become the most valuable. In fact, I can't think of a single exception....

I suspect that it has something to do with the fact that, once a car is purchased or kept as a 'collectible', it is rarely a daily driver and the practical disadvantages of a convertible top become much less important (with the exception of the Cayman they typically cost more, weigh more, have more interior noise, require more maintenance while having less torsional rigidity, safety, security and luggage space). Lets face it, most people drive their classic or collectors cars only on nice days - precisely when a convertible/roadster is in its own element!

[Meat Head]

Originally Posted by southernstar

Perfectlap, I agree with much of what you say in terms of the present situation. However, while your comments concerning roadsters/convertibles is true with respect to new car sales, once vehicles have become collectible it is almost invariably the roadsters/convertibles that become the most valuable. In fact, I can't think of a single exception....

I suspect that it has something to do with the fact that, once a car is purchased or kept as a 'collectible', it is rarely a daily driver and the practical disadvantages of a convertible top become much less important (with the exception of the Cayman they typically cost more, weigh more, have more interior noise, require more maintenance while having less torsional rigidity, safety, security and luggage space). Lets face it, most people drive their classic or collectors cars only on nice days - precisely when a convertible/roadster is in its own element!

I totally agree!

[986_inquiry]

Originally Posted by Perfectlap

I don't think its the IMS issues. Not after talking to my Indy this weekend about the cost to rebuild NA/Turbo air-cooled Carreras.
Man if dropping $12K on of those repairs doesn't scare away a first time Porsche buyer... and you thought $2K for a IMSB was bad?

IMS totals the engine, so it is a $12k+ repair

Originally Posted by Perfectlap

Also, the 996 has been well below 20K for quiet some time now. I'm seeing threads of people picking up fairly well kept 996's for $10-$12K.

996 911 for $10k? While I don't doubt that might have happened somewhere (hate to see what it looked like!), that's hardly the norm. ~$20,000 is closer to what they cost in average condition, but if you have some links for 911's selling for $10,000 I'd be happy to take a look

[thstone]

Originally Posted by 986_inquiry

996 911 for $10k? While I don't doubt that might have happened somewhere (hate to see what it looked like!), that's hardly the norm. ~$20,000 is closer to what they cost in average condition, but if you have some links for 911's selling for $10,000 I'd be happy to take a look

Here is a link to the 996 that I just bought for $10K after my Boxster was totaled:

http://986forum.com/forums/general-discussions/44227-986-wrecked-got-996-today.html

I think that you'll agree that it looks pretty nice. Savannah beige full leather interior. Porsche/BBS Sport Design 18" two piece wheels. No leaks, runs great, drives great.

[southernstar]

Papasmurf, you are right about the convertible 944 S2's - there are so few that I had forgotten about them! As to the rest, I stick by what I had said. I owned a 1970 Datsun 240Z and a 1974 260Z prior to my 944 and even then I recognized that, apart from the rear transaxle in the Porsche, the basic form and package was no different and anything but unique or a breakthrough. The 924 was a joint project with VW and apart from great handling, it had middle-of-road performance and a rather uninspired body design. The 944 was a significant upgrade in appearance and performance and, as I said, was certainly a good car. However, it was still based upon the 924 and, as a consequence, was and is still considered by many to be less than a real Porsche.

Balance shafts are like spark plugs? I disagree. Porsche didn't have to pay licensing fees for spark plugs. When they decided to cut a V8 in half, they discovered that the inherent inbalance of a large in-line 4 cylinder engine would shake unacceptably without the addition of some counter-rotational balance. In-line 4 cylinders just don't work well at that size and that is why we see so few in-line 4 cylinder of that size ( 2.5 litres ) or larger today. Simply put, they had to pay Mitsubishi for a fix for a problem that was inherent in the design. I'm not saying that it is bad engineering, per se - just not up to the standard that one would expect from Porsche.
AIs to the value of 986 Porsches, I am also sticking to my guns. I believe that the value for clean, well-maintained, low mileage examples has probably already bottomed. I also believe, for the reasons indicated, that as the supply of good examples continues to diminish (and at an increasing rate - cost to maintain versus low value), the prices for these good examples will start to rise. In around 2021, when Porsche will likely introduce its fourth version of the Boxster, the original Boxsters will then be 25 years old. I fully expect that Porsche will recognize this and produce a 'Silver Anniversary Edition' Boxster. I also expect that some magazines will recognize this with retrospective articles on the 986 as it was not only a seminal design, but one that was responsible for the survival of this great marque. This publicity will bring about a resurgance in interest and therewith an increase in demand. Since the remaining supply of good examples cannot increase, prices will inevitably rise.

Anyway, while predicting the future value of collectible cars (or anything else) is fraught with uncertainty; and, while I did not buy my car for any reason other than my joy in owning, driving and looking at her, I nevertheless believe that there is good news in the current low prices for owners and prospective purchasers of clean, well-maintained examples of the 986. At the very least, depreciation will be very low; at best, there is reason to believe that in another 8 years (mid-term from an investment standpoint), the values will start to rise significantly. Is that a sufficient reason to hang on to yours? Probably not. But if your 986 continues to provide joy and excitement that would be hard to replicate with any other car for the money, then by hanging on to it you may just end up in one of those very rare win/win situations.

Brad

[Perfectlap]

Originally Posted by 986_inquiry

IMS totals the engine, so it is a $12k+ repair

I don't think you can lump together a catastrophic repair (not part of the plan)
with doing a $7-$12K front-end on an air-cooled NA/Turbo engine which has to be done every x number miles. And only a small % of water-cooled engine need a total engine rebuild/swap. Over the long term on as far as cost to own, a water-cooled engine is by far the cheaper alternative. Well...unless you never drive the car but what's the point of having a sports car sitting in a glass bottle. If you're going to do that go buy a Jag or Merc.

Originally Posted by 986_inquiry

996 911 for $10k? While I don't doubt that might have happened somewhere (hate to see what it looked like!), that's hardly the norm. ~$20,000 is closer to what they cost in average condition, but if you have some links for 911's selling for $10,000 I'd be happy to take a look

Somewhere? How about this very forum less than a month ago? And by the looks of the photos, TheStone's 996.1 was hardly in average cosmetic or mechanical condition. A real enthusiast-owned cherry.
And guess what....that wasn't the first or even fifth 996 I saw go for $10-$12K. As a matter of fact there's a post right now on Rennlist for a 996 Cabriolet w/ 18" wheels purchased for $11.5k (picture).
The only people selling moderate to high mileage early 996's near to $20K are people who found a buyer with more money than knowledge. $20K is the retail price for a guy who stumbles onto Autotrader and spots a dealership's marked up price for a 996 that they picked up for peanuts at Manheim auctions. Search the direct from the seller classifieds on Craigslist and the car forums and you'll see that expectation level for the mileage and condiditon of a standard early 996.1 listing for ~$20K demands a nearly immaculate car.

Here are unofficial production numbers for early 996's.

1998: 9248
1999: 28,040
2000: 20,979
2001: 27,275
Total: 85,542

And there's about another 100K 996.2's right behind those..

[Perfectlap]

Originally Posted by southernstar

Perfectlap, I agree with much of what you say in terms of the present situation. However, while your comments concerning roadsters/convertibles is true with respect to new car sales, once vehicles have become collectible it is almost invariably the roadsters/convertibles that become the most valuable. In fact, I can't think of a single exception....

I suspect that it has something to do with the fact that, once a car is purchased or kept as a 'collectible', it is rarely a daily driver and the practical disadvantages of a convertible top become much less important (with the exception of the Cayman they typically cost more, weigh more, have more interior noise, require more maintenance while having less torsional rigidity, safety, security and luggage space). Lets face it, most people drive their classic or collectors cars only on nice days - precisely when a convertible/roadster is in its own element!

^ I agree. I think the collector car market and daily driver market have very different buyers. Also, once a car has been produced into the tens of thousands you've pretty much show the collector people the door for at least the next 20-30 years. The only chance I think the Boxster has is if the 3rd and 4th buyers start seeriously neglecting/abandoning repairs on their cars and leave the enthusiast examples as the only cost-effective ones to purchase. I highly doubt the mechanical parts needed to keep Boxsters road going are ever going to get any cheaper. But even if you look at the air-cooled Carreras, very few have actually exceeded their original sale prices.

[southernstar]

Perfectlap, I agree with all of that except your time-line of another 20 to 30 years before they become collectible (in 30 years the early 986's will be almost 50 years old)! While I agree that by then the remaining 986's that have been kept clean and original will have dramatically increased values over the present, history has shown that collectible status is not like turning on a switch. In the intervening years, there will come a point when used values for clean, well-maintained examples will start to hold and then, gradually over the passage of time, start to increase. I suspect that we are getting close to that point now and that the supply of clean, well-maintained examples will fall dramatically over the next several years. As I have said before, the low cost of admission now is bringing in purchasers who will be unable to afford to maintain their cars. The end result is that most of the 986's will end up as basket cases/parts cars once the cost of required repairs apporaches the value of the car. The beater that is now selling for $7-8,000.00 is already at that point if there is engine failure; even having to replace such typical items as a clutch, AOS, coolant expansion tank, waterpump and suspension components would likely match, or exceed the purchase price.

One should also remember that even vehicles such as the VW Beetle - produced in greater numbers than any single model of car, have been considered collectible for a number of years. Remember, while they stopped sales in the United States in 1979, they were produced in Mexico until 1998. It is impossible today to find a clean, original, well-maintained example for anywhere near the original purchase price. Why? What was originally a huge supply of good cars fell rapidly in a very short period of time - and this was in spite of the fact that parts were very cheap.

[Perfectlap]

Originally Posted by southernstar

As I have said before, the low cost of admission now is bringing in purchasers who will be unable to afford to maintain their cars. The end result is that most of the 986's will end up as basket cases/parts cars once the cost of required repairs apporaches the value of the car..

Which makes me wonder if it will be rare to see one of these on the road in the future. Even now with all this over-supply of decently running Boxsters how often do you see one every time you park your car in shopping mall parking lot? Still a pretty rare sight here. Now imagine how many you'll see after 10 years of neglect.

Someone might say "Boxster? Bigh whup. You can get one $5K".

Sure you can....

Now what about after you've spent all the money to get brakes, suspension, cooling and engine in order? There will never be any such thing as a $5K Porsche unless you are in that small minority of buyers that do his own work.
Suspensions/control arms are still going to run $2-4K installed. A clutch/ims/rms/flywheel job is still going to run $3K and paint work will only get more expensive over time. $5K just turned into $12K and counting..

[ProjectM96]

Originally Posted by thstone

We're seeing 996 prices dropping under $20K and 986 prices going below $10K. Why doesn't the 986/996 get the same love as the earlier 993 or later 997 cars?

Are the first water pumpers really that bad? Is it all IMS-related? Where does it end?

993=Last of the aircooled engines and the best looking 911 in many eyes.
997. It is much newer. When they are 15 years old, they will probably drop to $20,000 as well.

986=Many were produced. Many found for sale. There is no shortage of them. Same for the 996.

In 10 years, I expect the Boxster to be priced as low as the current Porsche 944's, at an average of $4500-5000.

[TeamOxford]

Originally Posted by thstone

We're seeing 996 prices dropping under $20K and 986 prices going below $10K. Why doesn't the 986/996 get the same love as the earlier 993 or later 997 cars?

Are the first water pumpers really that bad? Is it all IMS-related? Where does it end?

I'm sure that the Corvette, BMW Z3, and Honda S2000 owners are wondering the same thing about their cars:

10 sports cars under $10,000 - Yahoo! Autos

TO

[986_inquiry]

Originally Posted by TeamOxford

I'm sure that the Corvette, BMW Z3, and Honda S2000 owners are wondering the same thing about their cars:

10 sports cars under $10,000 - Yahoo! Autos

TO

"produces 217 hp and 192 lb-ft, enough grunt for a 0 to 60 mph romp of less than 7 seconds"

Erh, isn't it closer to 6 seconds?

HowStuffWorks "2000 Porsche Boxster and Porsche Boxster S"
"Porsche pegged the 2000 base Boxster at 6.4 seconds in the benchmark 0-60 dash, a modest 0.3-sec up on the 2.5-liter original. The real-world time was probably more like 5.9,"

disappointed Yahoo added a whole second to the 0-60 time. Thanks Yahoo.

[986_inquiry]

Originally Posted by thstone

We're seeing 996 prices dropping under $20K and 986 prices going below $10K. Why doesn't the 986/996 get the same love as the earlier 993 or later 997 cars?

Are the first water pumpers really that bad? Is it all IMS-related? Where does it end?

good question. I almost bought a 99 996 convertible, but went for a newer 987 instead

the payment on the 99 996 would be higher even though it was cheaper because no companies were willing to finance a car that old at the rate and terms I got because a older vehicle is more of a risk

so there you have it, i chose a 987 over a 996. Crazy or brilliant? You decide :dance: but let me remind you the 987 was being sold until 2012 so I basically have a Porsche that looks like a 2012 model

[Crono0001]

Originally Posted by 986_inquiry

good question. I almost bought a 99 996 convertible, but went for a newer 987 instead

the payment on the 99 996 would be higher even though it was cheaper because no companies were willing to finance a car that old at the rate and terms I got because a older vehicle is more of a risk

so there you have it, i chose a 987 over a 996. Crazy or brilliant? You decide :dance: but let me remind you the 987 was being sold until 2012 so I basically have a Porsche that looks like a 2012 model

Why are you financing such old cars?

[Porsche Chick]

Originally Posted by thstone

We're seeing 996 prices dropping under $20K and 986 prices going below $10K. Why doesn't the 986/996 get the same love as the earlier 993 or later 997 cars?

Are the first water pumpers really that bad? Is it all IMS-related? Where does it end?

This is the way that all Porsches are. In my experience, at least.

Our first Porsche was a 1975 911 (I have no idea what the number for that is, I think it's just 911). We bought it used and had it for about 10 years. When we sold it (I think it was 1990), no one wanted it, you couldn't give those things away. A Porsche with no actual A/C, that had a tendency to overheat in traffic (air cooled was a dirty word), with dated styling. Prices were really low.

Now all I hear is how great the air cooled was, and people are paying for it like it's a feature.

I think the moral of the story is keep a car until it's about 35 years old, then the price will go up. 35 years is a loooooong time, and attrition will eat up the majority of cars of that age. Those that are left are typically well cared for and worthy of collecting.