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Old 04-11-2017, 05:43 AM   #1
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Location: Acton, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by algiorda View Post
You have to manage this like you manage all risks:

The risk is: IMS failure. What is the probability the IMS will fail? 1%= Low 3%=Medium 30%=High

For a medium to high risk, you mitigate by replacing the IMS. If you do not replace the IMS, an ISSUE develops. The issue is engine failure. To mitigate a low risk, you change oil frequently, drive spirited, check oil filter for debris, etc.

JFP is introducing a NEW Risk: Replacing the IMS can introduce New IMS bearing failure.

Again, you have to weigh the risk: What is the probability a NEW bearing will fail due to poor installation, materials, design? .5-1%=Low, 1-3%=Medium, 10-30%=High.

So to evaluate the new risk, evaluate the possibility you may have a Lower risk with a replaced/repaired IMS and thus you have reduced your original risk of 3-30% to 1%.

That is a reasonable mitigation strategy.

In my case my 2004 was in the HIGH Risk category as several Indy's and salvage experts (Woody) have seen quite a few engine failures for 2004 due in part to the IMS failure. I have reduced my 30% risk to 1% or less replacing it with a new LN Retro kit.

You can also boil down the risk of using an OEM IMS kit VS. LN Retro Kit VS Others. One would have to do frequency analysis of IMS failures from each and the calculate the risk proportionately.

So perhaps we can create a mathematical formula for everyone to enter their environmental factors into an equation to give you a risk value to determine if you need to mitigate your IMS Risk?
Well stated!
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