Any guesses on what percentage of 986s have been junked?

[woodsman]

In 2007 Porsche celebrated producing their 200 000th Boxster.

[Fyeganeh]

So here is my roundabout way of getting an estimate of the number of Boxsters remaining. I know its wrong but its fun to try.

Basically we know how many Boxsters were sold in the US every year. Then we look at how many are currently listed for resale on Autotrader for each year of production. If the number for sale for any year is a constant based on the number of cars remaining, then we can calculate how many cars remain for each year based on the original amount sold.

Year Produced Listing Percent Remaining
1997 22
1998 9500 33 0.0058 3780
1999 14000 62 0.0044 4261
2000 14300 68 0.0048 4673
2001 12000 87 0.0073 5979
2002 9875 65 0.0066 4467
2003 6088 75 0.0123 5154
2004 3513 61 0.0174 4192
2005 7879 53 0.0067 3642
2006 4503 75 0.0167 5154
2007 3622 53 0.0146 3642
2008 2982 77 0.0258 5291
2009 1909 20 0.0105 1374
2010 2177 23 0.0106 1581
2011 1773 35 0.0197 2405
2012 2894 26 0.0090 1787
2013 4570 149 0.0326 10239
2014 3875 297 0.0766 20410
2015 369


The listing rate based on cars from 2004 to 2012 averages 1.46% of the produced stock assuming no loss of these cars. Now if you look at the the listing rate of the oldest cars it drops to 0.7 to 0.5% of the produced stock. If we assume the drop in the listing rate is due to scrapping of cars, we can calculate the cars remaining by the following equation:
remaining = produced * listed rate/1.46%(average rate for no loss cars)

The problem with this calculation is that it assumes the average rate of sale of any year is based only on the remaining cars. There are however other factors that would influence this rate - specifically the price of the car drops the older they are. This price difference can influence whether one is willing to sell a car, so you could argue that people who own the car won't want to sell/list at a low price as it is not worth the money and hold on to the cars instead.

This analysis suggests that 55-70% of the 1997-2002 Boxsters have been scrapped! I doubt its right, but interesting anyways.

[itsnotanova]

I didn't realize that many were made. I'd have to say my guess is way low after seeing the total produced. I also think my estimate of how many come up at the insurance auction was a little low, but not much. IAA mostly has a monopoly on the insurance auto auction and Boxsters really don't come up a lot compared to other makes and models.