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Old 02-24-2015, 03:54 AM   #1
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Any guesses on what percentage of 986s have been junked?

I know that a lot of 986s were produced. But does anyone know or have a guess on how many of these have been scrapped over the last 15+ years?

I have come up with a way of guessing that I know is not accurate but I want to see what others come up with first....

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Old 02-24-2015, 04:09 AM   #2
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I buy wrecked boxster for a living. I see about 4 a week come up for auction at the insurance auctions throughout the United States. By my calculations 3120 of them have been wrecked and of those half are put back on the road. So my guess 1560 have been recycled. That leaves one's that the owner has parted out and brought to scrap. I'm going to guess 100. So my guess is 1660 have been turned into scrap here in the US. I'm going to say that would also be a good guess for ROW too. So my official guess is 3320 Boxsters have been turned into scrap
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Old 02-24-2015, 04:19 AM   #3
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How many were made ?
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Old 02-24-2015, 04:22 AM   #4
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I think between 150 - 200K + produced 986.
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Old 02-24-2015, 04:25 AM   #5
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Pretty good odds then

I would have thought more had been turned into razor blades (that is what happened to my stepdad's heavy cruiser the Helena)
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Old 02-24-2015, 06:07 AM   #6
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Of the two I owned, 50%. They are getting harder to find in classifieds. Usually under 5 in a 200 mile radius of S cars.
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Old 02-24-2015, 07:01 AM   #7
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Porsche claims that about 70% of all their cars ever made are still on the road today. So, I'd figure about 20-25% on the 986 are bye-bye now. In a few more years, I'd expect that number to get closer to 25-30%. Then in a few more years after that, settle in around 30%.
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Old 02-24-2015, 07:14 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavor 987S View Post
Porsche claims that about 70% of all their cars ever made are still on the road today. So, I'd figure about 20-25% on the 986 are bye-bye now. In a few more years, I'd expect that number to get closer to 25-30%. Then in a few more years after that, settle in around 30%.
Yeah, I've seen that quote, but they are I'm sure producing at a much higher rate than before so most of that 70% are newer cars that haven't been scrapped yet. They are almost up to 200,000 cars produced in a year now. What were they producing in... 1990, 1980, 1970.... Was it 200,000 in a decade vs now in a year?
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Old 02-24-2015, 07:44 AM   #9
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model year sold (cars) overall production
1995/1996 19 82
1996/1997 15.876 15.902
1997/1998 18.817 18.887
1998/1999 20.892 22.063
1999/2000 25.747 25.865
2000/2001 27.865 28.457
2001/2002 21.897 21.989
2002/2003 18.411 18.788
2003/2004 12.988 13.462
2004/2005 18.009 20.321
2005/2006 27.906 30.680
2006/2007 26.146 26.712
2007/2008 21.747 22.356
2008/2009 13.140 14.403
2009/2010 11.717 12.255
2010 komplett 12.348 12.061
2011 11.280 12.207
2012 11.740 13.316
2013 14.730 15.229

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Old 02-24-2015, 03:52 PM   #10
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I had no idea there was a 95/96 Boxster. I graduated high school then. Would love to own one of the few.
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Old 02-24-2015, 04:37 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fyeganeh View Post
Yeah, I've seen that quote, but they are I'm sure producing at a much higher rate than before so most of that 70% are newer cars that haven't been scrapped yet. They are almost up to 200,000 cars produced in a year now. What were they producing in... 1990, 1980, 1970.... Was it 200,000 in a decade vs now in a year?
About half of those since 2004 are Cayennes
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Old 02-24-2015, 04:48 PM   #12
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In 2007 Porsche celebrated producing their 200 000th Boxster.
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Old 02-24-2015, 07:16 PM   #13
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So here is my roundabout way of getting an estimate of the number of Boxsters remaining. I know its wrong but its fun to try.

Basically we know how many Boxsters were sold in the US every year. Then we look at how many are currently listed for resale on Autotrader for each year of production. If the number for sale for any year is a constant based on the number of cars remaining, then we can calculate how many cars remain for each year based on the original amount sold.

Year Produced Listing Percent Remaining
1997 22
1998 9500 33 0.0058 3780
1999 14000 62 0.0044 4261
2000 14300 68 0.0048 4673
2001 12000 87 0.0073 5979
2002 9875 65 0.0066 4467
2003 6088 75 0.0123 5154
2004 3513 61 0.0174 4192
2005 7879 53 0.0067 3642
2006 4503 75 0.0167 5154
2007 3622 53 0.0146 3642
2008 2982 77 0.0258 5291
2009 1909 20 0.0105 1374
2010 2177 23 0.0106 1581
2011 1773 35 0.0197 2405
2012 2894 26 0.0090 1787
2013 4570 149 0.0326 10239
2014 3875 297 0.0766 20410
2015 369


The listing rate based on cars from 2004 to 2012 averages 1.46% of the produced stock assuming no loss of these cars. Now if you look at the the listing rate of the oldest cars it drops to 0.7 to 0.5% of the produced stock. If we assume the drop in the listing rate is due to scrapping of cars, we can calculate the cars remaining by the following equation:
remaining = produced * listed rate/1.46%(average rate for no loss cars)

The problem with this calculation is that it assumes the average rate of sale of any year is based only on the remaining cars. There are however other factors that would influence this rate - specifically the price of the car drops the older they are. This price difference can influence whether one is willing to sell a car, so you could argue that people who own the car won't want to sell/list at a low price as it is not worth the money and hold on to the cars instead.

This analysis suggests that 55-70% of the 1997-2002 Boxsters have been scrapped! I doubt its right, but interesting anyways.
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Old 02-25-2015, 06:44 AM   #14
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I didn't realize that many were made. I'd have to say my guess is way low after seeing the total produced. I also think my estimate of how many come up at the insurance auction was a little low, but not much. IAA mostly has a monopoly on the insurance auto auction and Boxsters really don't come up a lot compared to other makes and models.

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