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No freeking way there is a 50% chance of failure
And I'd surmise no one knows for sure exactly what it is, not even Porsche (as many of the cars Jake sees wouldn't be in their statistics).
My impression is you have a 1-3% chance of failure per year driven. Maybe more if poorly maintained or seldom driven. On the lower side is you do things right.
IIRC: The highest mileage Porsche Boxster I know of (Marc) is over 238k miles on the original engine. Pedro's engine blew at 207k on the track (after lots of track/AX time) but not from an IMS failure. Both are older cars with lots of miles. Both have original IMSs. Both were maintained much better than the book by Porsche knowledgeable folk. One was generally dealer maintained, one was owner maintained.
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