From your pictures, there's really no way to be sure of the source. Here's one of mine that had a leak that made the pan oily. This picture is after cleaning it and watching:
I cleaned it, and checked it regularly. There were lots of things that I hoped it was: spark plug tubes, oil cooler, leaky plug... I ruled them out over time. It got worse and I finally had it fixed by a shop while I had it in the shop for an inspection. It was the seal for the IMS. The IMS bearing itself (dual row) was still good, but I had them install the LN bearing anyway.