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^ The literature published about the original IMS states that the seals are compromised due to the type of service environment the bearing operates within, the grease washes out, and the lack of sufficient lubrication kills the bearing in a short period of time.
Therefore, the age of the bearing is a factor more than the mileage because as the bearing ages, the seals dry up. The occurrence of failure in low mileage cars supports this theory (more inactivity, less oil circulating around the bearing, etc.). From what I have read, I don't think anyone has seen either a single row or dual row bearing fail based on pure mechanical loading conditions, so it always has to be lubrication related. The fact that Porsche switched from a dual to single row bearing also supports that - and they have the type of design and testing data on the M96 that most engineers would salivate over.
So your statement that the "the moment your car hits the ground after installing it, you have exactly the same probability of failure that you had before you took it apart" is false because you will have refreshed the seals and eliminated any degradation with time that has occurred with the original bearing.
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