when they say that it will rain 67% of the time, they will come withing one or 2 % of that number (67 in this case), but for us, 67 is not really good number, but they will predict 67 and that will be the percentage of the rain, but for instance when you are planning a picnic and it raint on a 67% you will remember that and hate them for missing, when they in reality did predict that, but it just didnt play out in your favor
we just did that in a class the other day with a comparison of a doctor and a forecaster:
Forecaster: 40% chance of rain=rain falls 39% of the time
Doctor: 65% a chance of pneumonia=pneumonia only 10% of the time
but it is just the human nature to trust a doctor more than a forecaster,
if you show up at the doctors office and they dont reallly know if its one or the other, they will most likely give you medication for it, even if you are not sick, the risk of them saying its not and you dying is far more greater than the other way around
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