Blizzard in northern Illinois...

[drburton]

We got dumped on last night and I went out to a party any how. All was good until we hitched a ride home with a friend who drives a 545i BMW. I'm pretty sure we pushed the car half way home. I've never seen a car that bad in the snow, pretty much didn't move.

Ohh well, made it home without any serious incident.

[Grizzly]

Certainly nothing like what you guys are experiencing, but I'm headed out to shovel this "light rain" right now. We're expecting some more "light rain" this evening.

In my next life, I'm coming back as a weatherman. In what other profession can you be consistently wrong, with no apologies, and no consequences?

[djomlas]

actually they are 99.8% right with what they forcast based on the percentages

[Grizzly]

Originally Posted by djomlas

actually they are 99.8% right with what they forcast based on the percentages

Dude, where'd you get that number?

An agency called Forecast Advisor compiles weather forecasts of the major providers in the the U.S. and measures the reliability of the forecasted information. Of course, some areas of the Country are a lot more predictable weather-wise than here, but in my zip, weather forecasts are correct anywhere between 70 and 76% of the time, with the National Weather Service being only 71.45% correct. I don't know about you, but in my profession, if I were wrong 30% of the time, I'd be very, very dead.

A similar study that I read from the U.K. found that their weather forecasts are correct about 57% of the time for the following day, dropping to 25-27% looking four days out. That's abysmal.

[djomlas]

when they say that it will rain 67% of the time, they will come withing one or 2 % of that number (67 in this case), but for us, 67 is not really good number, but they will predict 67 and that will be the percentage of the rain, but for instance when you are planning a picnic and it raint on a 67% you will remember that and hate them for missing, when they in reality did predict that, but it just didnt play out in your favor

we just did that in a class the other day with a comparison of a doctor and a forecaster:
Forecaster: 40% chance of rain=rain falls 39% of the time
Doctor: 65% a chance of pneumonia=pneumonia only 10% of the time

but it is just the human nature to trust a doctor more than a forecaster,
if you show up at the doctors office and they dont reallly know if its one or the other, they will most likely give you medication for it, even if you are not sick, the risk of them saying its not and you dying is far more greater than the other way around

[larryshomework]

I picked up my Box in Chicago on Friday afternoon - was going to stay through the weekend but left early Saturday morning for the drive back to Alabama.

Looks like I got out of there at the right time.

Sunny and 70 today here in Alabama - great day for my first day at home with my new toy...

[djomlas]

damn you, steal a nice ride in chicago, and leave us w blizzard