02-05-2015, 08:40 PM
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#1
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Montreal, QC. (currently expat to Shanghai)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfectlap
^ it will be that quick. Tesla decided to break from the herd and offer a different solution in packaging the batteries by skipping the large format li-ion packs that were so expensive in previous "green" cars and instead pack together thousands of small batteries much like in your gadgets and cellphones. If you're someone who has been buying these batteries over the years you've seen a real sea change in how cheap these batteries are now and how much better they are. For instance I carry eight 3,200 mAh aftermarket batteries for my Samsung phone in my laptop bag, I don't really plug the phone into the wall anymore, I have full use of the phone at all times by simply swapping in one of my spares whenever the battery gets down to 15%. Despite being able to last about a day or day and half, each of those 3,200 mAh spares are only the width of three credit cards. The manufacturers see plenty of demand and the intense competition for that business has driven down the costs to the point where each battery runs about $8 retail, probably $1-2 wholesale. That's cheaper than a pack of of double A Energizers that go right in the trash bin after they're spent. Tesla packaging the batteries this way was a genius move. They want to sell cars, not batteries. A task that will be made easier by being partnered with Panasonic.
And it's not just the Tesla Gigafactories, everything we use today will need more efficient and centralized battery production to drive down costs. For everything from iPad to iCar. Where there is a need there will be eager investors and excellent managers to re-think how the market demand is met just like Henry Ford did with his assembly line. Same thing WILL happen with batteries because there's simply too much darn money to make. If Musk pulls this off that will probably make him richer than anything he's done before. Meanwhile everyone else is asleep. Except maybe Porsche.
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Keep dreaming my friend, can't stop you on that loll
You are possibly right for now. However when you'll have 51% of the transport industry rolling on batts you'll see your GOV and most others setting up their great tariffs as they always do, anti-dumping, firm policies, and I pass tons of others that leads to the common monopoly of energy - in what ever forms it will be.
When any of that happens crude oil should cost approximately the same as H2O but then.... you'll be forbidden to burn it for various reasons. And then you think your batts will be cost effective and be recharged for near free money?! Be serious please
Electric is in favor to GOVs, not our societies. Automakers are just little white sheep mate... go figure why they receive large federal funding and why energy companies gets help out of their bankruptcies. Meeehhhh!
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02-06-2015, 09:08 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 8,709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nine8Six
Electric is in favor to GOVs, not our societies. Automakers are just little white sheep mate... go figure why they receive large federal funding and why energy companies gets help out of their bankruptcies. Meeehhhh!
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Electric is in favor with consumers, or anyone who favors energy costs that are more predictable and less prone to volatile swings and cartel mischief. Most any modern economy can make electricity cheaply which makes the issue of whether it is cleaner irrelevant. Nobody is trying to save the planet in earnest, but nearly all want to drive out the uncertainty in costs from energy sources that largely based on speculative demand (and always will be).
If you look at the history of business, once a more predictable option emerges in a feasible way, it takes over. Look at these guys drilling oil out of the ground, one year they're popping champagne the next year they have more rigs sitting dormant than at any time in decades. Business likes certainty. And it just so happens that single largest economy in the world is the Saudi Arabia of electricity-making coal. On the one hand you have gigafactories making batteries and on the other side you have all that coal. Sooner or later consumers and business will figure it out. This cheap oil isn't going to last.
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02-06-2015, 07:41 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfectlap
Electric is in favor with consumers, or anyone who favors energy costs that are more predictable and less prone to volatile swings and cartel mischief. Most any modern economy can make electricity cheaply which makes the issue of whether it is cleaner irrelevant. Nobody is trying to save the planet in earnest, but nearly all want to drive out the uncertainty in costs from energy sources that largely based on speculative demand (and always will be).
If you look at the history of business, once a more predictable option emerges in a feasible way, it takes over. Look at these guys drilling oil out of the ground, one year they're popping champagne the next year they have more rigs sitting dormant than at any time in decades. Business likes certainty. And it just so happens that single largest economy in the world is the Saudi Arabia of electricity-making coal. On the one hand you have gigafactories making batteries and on the other side you have all that coal. Sooner or later consumers and business will figure it out. This cheap oil isn't going to last.
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Batteries don't create energy, they just store it, inefficiently. Wait and see what will happen to electricity costs, if we ditch petrol and run all the world vehicles on electricity.
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02-06-2015, 09:44 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Listowel, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 1,120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pominoz
Batteries don't create energy, they just store it, inefficiently. Wait and see what will happen to electricity costs, if we ditch petrol and run all the world vehicles on electricity.
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Who knows what will happen? What we do know is that oil and gas is finite and eventually will run out. Still lots left for sure - but the costs of getting it will get higher and higher.
Batteries and electric vehicles are the future and with all the R/D will only get better and better, until the next technology comes along.
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02-09-2015, 02:54 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Southern New jersey
Posts: 1,054
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giller
Who knows what will happen? What we do know is that oil and gas is finite and eventually will run out. Still lots left for sure - but the costs of getting it will get higher and higher.
Batteries and electric vehicles are the future and with all the R/D will only get better and better, until the next technology comes along.
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Umm, what do you think generates electricity? In the US, primarily Fossil Fuels. Plus, you're adding losses from power transmission and storage. Electric cars are not some magic bullet to solve all our ills.
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02-09-2015, 03:40 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Listowel, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stephen wilson
Umm, what do you think generates electricity? In the US, primarily Fossil Fuels. Plus, you're adding losses from power transmission and storage. Electric cars are not some magic bullet to solve all our ills.
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Yes, right now, primarily fossil fuels. But wind power is growing and water power has been around for some time. Solar is still finding a way to be cost effective, but full of promise. There is a TON of potential in renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, the big money is still in oil and gas (okay for my stock portfolio, bad for the environment).
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02-08-2015, 08:09 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 8,709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pominoz
Batteries don't create energy, they just store it, inefficiently. Wait and see what will happen to electricity costs, if we ditch petrol and run all the world vehicles on electricity.
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yes we know all about inefficiency via the internal combustion engine where nearly 70% of the energy that is paid for can not be used by the motorist. Every year trillions of dollars go right down the tubes that could have gone into the economy in ways that lifts demand for all sectors of the economy instead of just the few who do well when the oil markets spike.
As far as electricity costs, necessity is the mother of invention. When the free market senses a ramped up need for cheap electric power, those wishing to profit like a Bill Gates from filling that void waste no time in entering the race to deliver it. So the saying should be profit is the mother of invention.
In the end we may not end up saving any money at all vs. the current system of relying so heavily on a finite and inefficient commodity but we however will no longer be dependent on the wildly speculative demand of the oil markets that can erase a small business profit from unexpectedly high fuel costs in a matter of weeks. The oil market completely ignores falling oil consumption, excess supply one year and pays attention the next only to ignore it all over again. What business or household wants to continue depending on that kind of instability?
Volatility is great for hedge funds but households and small business not so much.
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Last edited by Perfectlap; 02-08-2015 at 08:12 AM.
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02-08-2015, 05:30 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Montreal, QC. (currently expat to Shanghai)
Posts: 3,249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pominoz
Batteries don't create energy, they just store it, inefficiently. Wait and see what will happen to electricity costs, if we ditch petrol and run all the world vehicles on electricity.
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LOL not only it stores energy inefficiently, it is also unsustainable. Go figure.... billions and billions thrown at it with a blind eye. The only reason 'why' that I can think of is ROI. Sad to see in all honesty
Keep dreaming! The traditional computer will have more transistors than a human has neurons in its brain way before the energy crisis is half sorted. Keep spending your R&D funds dearest world powers, its entertaining!
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