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Old 01-13-2015, 11:16 AM   #1
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Originally Posted by Perfectlap View Post
I believe that the middle class are actually getting poorer when you factor in all their long-term commitments and their higher expected household contributions. For instance, the savings rate in America is still barely 1-2% but the cost of just about everything but oil is rising. Unless the typical American has some portion of their savings in aggressive investments, (that ends well) this math of what's coming in vs. what's going out doesn't really add up over the course of a working life. I'm not sure how any growth in net worth can be expected running a household deficit and the fact that people are no longer getting rich from owning their homes. Wage increases for the majority haven't been anything to write home about since we were putting people on the moon.
Agree on the wealthy. This is about the best time ever to be an investor. Low taxes relative to just about every other advanced economy, plenty of corporate global growth to see your LTCG rise indefinitely.
I missed this part earlier. I would counter that the savings rate is irrelevant and history shows that the savings rate closely matches the inflation rate and therefore, you never actually 'make money' in a savings account-type investment. And then factor in taxes on that income, you actually have less buying power. Higher rates typically mean higher inflation and therefore nullify those high rates.
You definitely have a point on the house aspect. People are now carrying mortgages well into retirement - something that didn't happen even 10 years ago. Therefore people now have to work longer into what normally would be their retirement, which can have a huge impact on a person's stress levels and therefore overall health.
I still argue a portfolio filled with a variety of blue-chip, dividend paying stocks will provide you the best return over the long term, with a small portion in savings to cover those emergencies. (don't want to have to cash out if the markets are down) The key of course is not panicking and selling when the markets go down. That's when you buy!
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Old 01-13-2015, 12:48 PM   #2
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I missed this part earlier. I would counter that the savings rate is irrelevant and history shows that the savings rate closely matches the inflation rate and therefore, you never actually 'make money' in a savings account-type investment. And then factor in taxes on that income, you actually have less buying power. Higher rates typically mean higher inflation and therefore nullify those high rates.
Well most wealth is NOT inherited so savings in whatever vehicle (cash, equity, fixed income, etc.) that the worker chooses has to be at some level above negative to expect the average person's net worth to rise in a significant way. If the average worker is only putting up 0 - 2%, then that contribution has to be doing some pretty heavy lifting on performance to ensure 20+ years of security in retirement. The home mortgage as you say is just a liability these days.

I think your comments on savings/inflation rates were based on a time when central banks weren't as active as they are now. But even if we weren't into this ZIRP era, the growth of global corporate wealth would still push the average investor to lean heavily on equities to 'make up' for lost time. Global growth is just too tough an act to follow for competing non-equity investments, especially to someone whose time in the workforce is ending soon.
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Last edited by Perfectlap; 01-13-2015 at 12:52 PM.
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Old 01-13-2015, 01:52 PM   #3
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Many things factor into savings rates, a VERY interesting chart concerning savings rates over the past 56 years for US Citizens:

United States Personal Savings Rate | 1959-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

A paradigm shift of retirement vehicles should start rearing it's ugly head in the next 15 to 20 years (baby boomers started retiring in earnest in 2011) if not sooner, conventional pensions and what were otherwise structured retirement programs will begin petering out / become a thing of the past. The other 800 lb. gorilla, health care costs will be burdened by whom?

Think of the average Joe and the look they have on their face when confronted with anything resembling financial acumen and preparing for the future, they totally zone out and want to hear none of it. As the comedian said, You can't fix stupid.
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