Remember that lost exhaust U-bend piece? Here is what I found when I disassembled everything...
The hot exhaust was directed straight into the corner of the rear fender area...
The heat shield might have been previously damaged or was simply insufficient to block the direct heat of the exhaust - either way the hot exhaust was able to melt the plastic fender liner carrier ... (damaged part next to the replacement part)
With the heat getting past the heat shield, it was able to damage the interior of the bumper cover ...
Then, as expected, with that much damage to the interior of the bumper cover, the exterior of the rear bumper cover was damaged....