Any guesses on what percentage of 986s have been junked?

[Fyeganeh]

I know that a lot of 986s were produced. But does anyone know or have a guess on how many of these have been scrapped over the last 15+ years?

I have come up with a way of guessing that I know is not accurate but I want to see what others come up with first....

[itsnotanova]

I buy wrecked boxster for a living. I see about 4 a week come up for auction at the insurance auctions throughout the United States. By my calculations 3120 of them have been wrecked and of those half are put back on the road. So my guess 1560 have been recycled. That leaves one's that the owner has parted out and brought to scrap. I'm going to guess 100. So my guess is 1660 have been turned into scrap here in the US. I'm going to say that would also be a good guess for ROW too. So my official guess is 3320 Boxsters have been turned into scrap

[Pdwight]

How many were made ?

[ilikeching]

I think between 150 - 200K + produced 986.

[Pdwight]

I would have thought more had been turned into razor blades (that is what happened to my stepdad's heavy cruiser the Helena)

[BIGJake111]

Of the two I owned, 50%. They are getting harder to find in classifieds. Usually under 5 in a 200 mile radius of S cars.

[Flavor 987S]

Porsche claims that about 70% of all their cars ever made are still on the road today. So, I'd figure about 20-25% on the 986 are bye-bye now. In a few more years, I'd expect that number to get closer to 25-30%. Then in a few more years after that, settle in around 30%.

[Fyeganeh]

Originally Posted by Flavor 987S

Porsche claims that about 70% of all their cars ever made are still on the road today. So, I'd figure about 20-25% on the 986 are bye-bye now. In a few more years, I'd expect that number to get closer to 25-30%. Then in a few more years after that, settle in around 30%.

Yeah, I've seen that quote, but they are I'm sure producing at a much higher rate than before so most of that 70% are newer cars that haven't been scrapped yet. They are almost up to 200,000 cars produced in a year now. What were they producing in... 1990, 1980, 1970.... Was it 200,000 in a decade vs now in a year?

[Smallblock454]

model year	sold (cars)	overall production
1995/1996	19	82
1996/1997	15.876	15.902
1997/1998	18.817	18.887
1998/1999	20.892	22.063
1999/2000	25.747	25.865
2000/2001	27.865	28.457
2001/2002	21.897	21.989
2002/2003	18.411	18.788
2003/2004	12.988	13.462
2004/2005	18.009	20.321
2005/2006	27.906	30.680
2006/2007	26.146	26.712
2007/2008	21.747	22.356
2008/2009	13.140	14.403
2009/2010	11.717	12.255
2010 komplett	12.348	12.061
2011	11.280	12.207
2012	11.740	13.316
2013	14.730	15.229

[Swhitcomb]

I had no idea there was a 95/96 Boxster. I graduated high school then. Would love to own one of the few.

[BYprodriver]

Originally Posted by Fyeganeh

Yeah, I've seen that quote, but they are I'm sure producing at a much higher rate than before so most of that 70% are newer cars that haven't been scrapped yet. They are almost up to 200,000 cars produced in a year now. What were they producing in... 1990, 1980, 1970.... Was it 200,000 in a decade vs now in a year?

About half of those since 2004 are Cayennes

[woodsman]

In 2007 Porsche celebrated producing their 200 000th Boxster.

[Fyeganeh]

So here is my roundabout way of getting an estimate of the number of Boxsters remaining. I know its wrong but its fun to try.

Basically we know how many Boxsters were sold in the US every year. Then we look at how many are currently listed for resale on Autotrader for each year of production. If the number for sale for any year is a constant based on the number of cars remaining, then we can calculate how many cars remain for each year based on the original amount sold.

Year Produced Listing Percent Remaining
1997 22
1998 9500 33 0.0058 3780
1999 14000 62 0.0044 4261
2000 14300 68 0.0048 4673
2001 12000 87 0.0073 5979
2002 9875 65 0.0066 4467
2003 6088 75 0.0123 5154
2004 3513 61 0.0174 4192
2005 7879 53 0.0067 3642
2006 4503 75 0.0167 5154
2007 3622 53 0.0146 3642
2008 2982 77 0.0258 5291
2009 1909 20 0.0105 1374
2010 2177 23 0.0106 1581
2011 1773 35 0.0197 2405
2012 2894 26 0.0090 1787
2013 4570 149 0.0326 10239
2014 3875 297 0.0766 20410
2015 369


The listing rate based on cars from 2004 to 2012 averages 1.46% of the produced stock assuming no loss of these cars. Now if you look at the the listing rate of the oldest cars it drops to 0.7 to 0.5% of the produced stock. If we assume the drop in the listing rate is due to scrapping of cars, we can calculate the cars remaining by the following equation:
remaining = produced * listed rate/1.46%(average rate for no loss cars)

The problem with this calculation is that it assumes the average rate of sale of any year is based only on the remaining cars. There are however other factors that would influence this rate - specifically the price of the car drops the older they are. This price difference can influence whether one is willing to sell a car, so you could argue that people who own the car won't want to sell/list at a low price as it is not worth the money and hold on to the cars instead.

This analysis suggests that 55-70% of the 1997-2002 Boxsters have been scrapped! I doubt its right, but interesting anyways.

[itsnotanova]

I didn't realize that many were made. I'd have to say my guess is way low after seeing the total produced. I also think my estimate of how many come up at the insurance auction was a little low, but not much. IAA mostly has a monopoly on the insurance auto auction and Boxsters really don't come up a lot compared to other makes and models.