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Originally Posted by Brucelee
The great thing about conspiracy theories is that they can't be DISPROVEN. However, if you go back and trace energy price movements over say, the last 50 yrs) you will see that they are highest in summer (auto driving and A/C demand) then tend to trail down in fall (less driving and less cooling demand) and then they move higher into winter (heating season demand, auto travel around holidays).
Now, since elections in this country happen in November ................................!
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The pattern I described refers to the movement in unleaded gas futures contracts for most (if not all) delivery months (one, for example, being the contract for delivery in Jan 2007). What you described is a pattern that already is reflected in the term structure of that market (i.e. in the spreads between prices of contracts with different delivery months) which has been pretty constant and non-arbitrageable for a decade now. There's no particular seasonal reason for the Jan 2007 contract to dip into, bottom out at, and rally back after Nov 7, 2006.
Z.