Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfectlap
Porsche charge you $900K for a 918 Spyder because they can. Much like a Rolex is not really a $6,000 watch but really a watch that can be made for $800 by ETA, a great deal of the tech behind that car is propietary but it won't be long before others (Asia) with less cache can produce similar technology for buyers who demand more value on a cost basis. The Tesla Model S is now price-competitve with virtually every mass produced Porsche and Lexus and (globally) is close to matching Porsche's production numbers for North America in 2009. And this before the Tesla SUV and entry level cars have been offered. When the market is fed up with old way of filling up a car and are presented an alternative they have evidently grabbed it with both hands. And much like Apple plowed the market with the first all touch screen phone six years ago for a lofty price, Xiaomi of China can now offer a phone like the Mi3, with all of the same tech of an iPhone for what used to be the price of a flip phone. The same will happen with high HP hybrid and electric cars. When you're talking about a global market, and no longer just a U.S. market, cost of production plummets at a rate we've not seen before.
Dumped? Well that's an interesting way of describing R&D.
Whatever we have spent on R&D for electric engines we will get back 10 fold when you extricate the average consumer from an oil market that is NOT priced on supply and demand. The price action of oil is and will always be priced on the EXPECTATION of demand.
How will we ever know how much oil we need vs. how much oil is left? The only way the expectation of demand can go down, enough to actually lower/sustain the prices bidders are willing to pay, particularly those subsidized by central govts like China that 'artificially' raise those bids, is if those unknowns, of future demand vs. future supply, become certainties. And that's impossible because there isn't a single market for commodities, equities or any other, that is static. And more importantly, the way oil is and will always be traded favors drastic fluctuations in price action and higher and higher prices. Those wild swings create an unending paranoia amongst bidders so that they feel they will always need to bid at escalating levels to secure their share of production. These bidders are not going to back off because some biased market research assure us that there is plenty more oil and peak oil just a myth. They look at production from the largest producers in OPEC who can no longer hide the fact that their levels are falling. The global bidders of oil have looked at the broader market and are convinced that any new oil production in best case scenarios (like a huge spike in U.S. production) will not keep pace with the hundreds of millions of new oil consumers in emerging markets using very inefficient and cheap engines. Basically the bidders firmly believe that tens of millions of new motorists outside of America will devour whatever we can produce domestically. And you can't argue with the market. Which is an oil speculators and broker's dream come true. Who in their right mind wants to rely on a market like that? Who wants to run a business when a 20% spike in price volatility in a single month (putting you at a net loss instantly) is entirely possible and likely? That's the equivalent of buying a house with a variable rate when everyone and their sister is telling you that rates are about to explode.
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Well that's quite verbose.
Keep it pithy!!
You addressed basically what you wanted and left what you didn't want to touch alone.
Hey, Im all for progress but not for reinventing the wheel just to spite the wheel.
Im just pointing out that if we want high mpg/high performance, there are other options that are much further along. That's my main point and one no one has disputed here so far.
It feels good to say were going electric just to stick it up OPEC's arse, and Im just saying the tech isn't quite there yet, and the billions we have spent, subsidized, and granted to R and D may have been better spent elsewhere. That's subjective, I know.
What isn't subjective is the fact we probably have more oil than almost anyone, especially considering our shale extraction or whatever that is less invasive than traditional drilling. We choose not to pursue many avenues based strictly on political/social view points. Fact. There is NO shortage, only oil companies and the politicians in their pockets telling you so to justify exorbitant costs.
Look, if you love electric cars as they stand today, go buy one. God bless if you can get a 918. Btw, Porsche can charge 900k because there are no other options, not because they are Porsche. Rolex has competitors that make pricey, high quality watches. There are other brands to choose from that tell time and impress with label.
Again, I like progress, I think one day soon electric MAY be a great choice for the average consumer, but it just isn't ready yet and what bothers me is there are companies that will be happy to take your money anyway just so you can "feel good."