While not a big fan of Extended Warranties
the difference between the two cars isn't really $3800 assuming you see the records of the 45k being done and the CPO report. The 45k car is worth about $466 more in comparison because it has 15k until a ~$1400 service is needed where the 50k car has only 10k. So the 50k car has "used up" $1/3 of the $1400 or so the 60k service will cost and the 45k car has "used up" none.
So now we are down to a difference in "value cost" of $3800-466 or $3333. And if the 50k car was not CPOed, I'd recommend a Pre-Purchase Inspection at another $250-300. So now we are closer to $3000 difference.
There may be other subtle differences...brake pad thickness, tread depth, etc. Buy the non-CPOed car and the PPI may reveal more about when those things will need to be done while the CPO report should tell you the same for that car and serve as the PPI. Plus a CPO car has to meet minimum standards while the non-CPOed car may meet safety standards which may not be as tough.
I can't begin to guess your risk tolerance and thus how important the extended warranty is to you.
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