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-   -   virus prediction (http://986forum.com/forums/off-topic-discussions/78432-virus-prediction.html)

flmont 08-10-2020 06:34 PM

Sorry That's not a Rump statement that was a Fauci statement in the beginning or someone who thought they knew what they were talking about .:barf:

piper6909 08-10-2020 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flmont (Post 622323)
Sorry That's not a Rump statement that was a Fauci statement in the beginning or someone who thought they knew what they were talking about .:barf:

Try again, pal. Facts are a biotch, and so is video proof! :D:D:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svrxYLvJYto

Well, at least you got the "someone who thought they knew what they were talking about" part right! :D:D:D:D

And here are other videos for your enjoyment!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qv9sH5ptgRA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYnXBRo9TVA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvvD2EPOqaY

maytag 08-10-2020 07:08 PM

Piper6909 = post-bully.


;-)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

flmont 08-10-2020 07:13 PM

Well ok ,..he repeated it,.

flmont 08-10-2020 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piper6909 (Post 622318)
What a joke!

Still waiting for what was so funny :confused:

piper6909 08-10-2020 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maytag (Post 622327)
Piper6909 = post-bully.


;-)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

haha! Facts are my weapons of choice! Locked and loaded, baby! I have a full arsenal!
:cheers:

piper6909 08-10-2020 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flmont (Post 622328)
Well ok ,..he repeated it,.

Nope, nobody else said it. Especially not Fauci. Rump was the only one who said it, unless someone was repeating Rump.

piper6909 08-10-2020 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flmont (Post 622329)
Still waiting for what was so funny :confused:

Nevermind, I'm trying to follow 78F350's suggestion to be kind. :D

flmont 08-10-2020 09:36 PM

Oh pls ..i can take it..

Starter986 08-11-2020 03:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flmont (Post 622314)
,..I will agree this Virus is unique, But you cant wear a mask forever to protect yourself from the winds of a virus mask may slow it down but it wont stop it,Heat was suppose to kill it,I live in Tucson, Az way past 100 Deg's A day for weeks and the numbers went up,I don't trust the numbers, or the way all this Virus protection has been conducted, I.E. Symptoms : headache,muscle soreness, coughing, temperature, fatigue, stiffness, I get all of that with the common Flu, I just don't trust the Government to tell me what's best when they don't even know,its that simple for me,The Obama/Biden ticket,sure didn't create a very quick recovery from the housing bubble crash,I think they or Obama seen that as a way to Fundamentally change America as he so elegantly stated ( the way he wants it's).Once he benefitted from America's success ,.Law school,then to government,.He didn't want the same for ALL American's or he would have done what Trump has done,..open up the economy and cut taxes, and the regulations that only hurt America,..Trump is no secret Genius,.any politician that wants a successful country would do exactly what he did,.Iam sure Bernie and Cortez will be wonderful for PA,.If you can drive your car on seaweed..or Sunlight have fun

Well said. You're on the list (I'll get to that someday). ;)

:cheers:

Starter986 08-11-2020 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flmont (Post 622316)
George Floyd,..this is most certainly a shameful thing on those police officer's( no matter who's neck it was),That justice should be between Mr.Floyd's family and that Police department, period..It's not just cause to ruin other's livelihood, and property, It just goes to show how people are being raised and educated to hate everything in this country because they weren't handed success or taught respect for other's,.. it's said, You get out of life what you put into it ,Protesting is a way to be heard,.to change thing's, you actually need to make an effort in the proper direction,..8 yrs of Obama/Biden why wasn't there change, they complain the most !! and do nothing because they like to create chaos, How's that for another Political statement !

Soap box now folded up and put away ! ( My apologies to anyone I may have offended )

Offended anyone? Oh, you mean Pipe! "That" anyone? Screw him. ;)

2ata 08-11-2020 06:52 AM

The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Example; our facility closed several units in preparation for a surge in COVID cases that never happened. The units remained empty for months. Hospitalizations for our system never broke 100 with ICU cases in the mid 20's. Those closings resulted in the loss of 800 employees.

Detroit; the hospitals in downtown Detroit saw a significant influx of cases. Poorer population and a higher than average co morbidity rate played a role in that. Field hospitals were established at both COBO and Showplace in Novi. Each site was built to house 1000 cases per. At peak there were 2 cases transferred to COBO. Hospitals outside of downtown were virtual ghost towns with decreases in patient volumes.

As it sits now, testing has steadily increased thus resulting in more positive results being returned. "Cast a wider net, catch more fish." The real data that matters is not in the positive tests, it is in the hospitalization rates. For the most part overall hospitalizations are down, however, there are some locations now seeing an increase.

If we were to approach flu testing in the same manner that we are testing for COVID I believe that the positive result numbers would be very similar.

One comment on hospital morgues. It is easy to paint a grim picture using volume overwhelming the hospital morgue. In general these locations are small and not intended for volume. (I think we can hold 8 and we are a larger facility.) If you have any number of ICU cases that are critical related to COVID and then you add in the normal deaths in a hospital or incoming traumas. It's easy to run out of space.

After Katrina the DMORT team set up in Baton Rouge had 30 refrigerated semis on site for the same purpose.

piper6909 08-11-2020 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2ata (Post 622357)
The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Example; our facility closed several units in preparation for a surge in COVID cases that never happened. The units remained empty for months. Hospitalizations for our system never broke 100 with ICU cases in the mid 20's. Those closings resulted in the loss of 800 employees.

Detroit; the hospitals in downtown Detroit saw a significant influx of cases. Poorer population and a higher than average co morbidity rate played a role in that. Field hospitals were established at both COBO and Showplace in Novi. Each site was built to house 1000 cases per. At peak there were 2 cases transferred to COBO. Hospitals outside of downtown were virtual ghost towns with decreases in patient volumes.

As it sits now, testing has steadily increased thus resulting in more positive results being returned. "Cast a wider net, catch more fish." The real data that matters is not in the positive tests, it is in the hospitalization rates. For the most part overall hospitalizations are down, however, there are some locations now seeing an increase.

If we were to approach flu testing in the same manner that we are testing for COVID I believe that the positive result numbers would be very similar.

One comment on hospital morgues. It is easy to paint a grim picture using volume overwhelming the hospital morgue. In general these locations are small and not intended for volume. (I think we can hold 8 and we are a larger facility.) If you have any number of ICU cases that are critical related to COVID and then you add in the normal deaths in a hospital or incoming traumas. It's easy to run out of space.

After Katrina the DMORT team set up in Baton Rouge had 30 refrigerated semis on site for the same purpose.

It's nice to have some insight from someone who is in the trenches. Thank you.

The one thing I'd like to add to "Cast a wider net, catch more fish" is that the fish are still there, regardless what size net you cast. Casting the net does not create the fish.

dghii 08-11-2020 08:13 AM

I have one question...
What the hell happened to the Killer Hornets?

tommy583 08-11-2020 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dghii (Post 622361)
I have one question...
What the hell happened to the Killer Hornets?

I heard they all caught the Covid 19 and died. I can't remember where I saw it....probably the internet. :D

Starter986 08-11-2020 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piper6909 (Post 622332)
Nevermind, I'm trying to follow 78F350's suggestion to be kind. :D

Oh, you are kind. Kind of a... :D

lol

piper6909 08-11-2020 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Starter986 (Post 622365)
Oh, you are kind. Kind of a... :D

lol

I may be kind of a ...., but you're totally a ....! :D:D:D

Your turn. ;) :cheers:

Starter986 08-11-2020 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piper6909 (Post 622368)
I may be kind of a ...., but you're totally a ....! :D:D:D

Your turn. ;) :cheers:

I've got nothing... but I accept the compliment. ;)

Have a good day! :D

DoninDel 08-11-2020 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2ata (Post 622357)
The data on this whole topic is still so spread between some true and some false that it's almost impossible to accurately decipher.

Is it? Don't you agree that NY and adjacent states, led by Cuomo (who I had NOT been a fan of) showed what worked and ought to have been done nationally and Georgia and Florida in particular show bad management???
Compare the curves of Europe to that of the US and it is clear we're not doing well.

As to testing showing more cases - that logic would say we should stop doing mammograms to lessen breast cancer.

In covid deaths, "We're No 1" is not where we should be.

piper6909 08-11-2020 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Starter986 (Post 622369)
I've got nothing... but I accept the compliment. ;)

Have a good day! :D

That's exactly how I took it and how I meant it! ;)

2ata 08-11-2020 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoninDel (Post 622370)

As to testing showing more cases - that logic would say we should stop doing mammograms to lessen breast cancer.

This is completely off base of what I said. I did not deny cases exist. That is not the data that matters. Infections exist get past that as asymptomatic carriers really have no clinical significance other than to say that they have an infection. Real numbers that matter are those that are having problems; hospitalizations, ICU admissions, vent or ECMO dependent.

I will not address politics.

2ata 08-11-2020 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piper6909 (Post 622360)
It's nice to have some insight from someone who is in the trenches. Thank you.

The one thing I'd like to add to "Cast a wider net, catch more fish" is that the fish are still there, regardless what size net you cast. Casting the net does not create the fish.

I did not deny the existence of the fish. I merely contend that does the existence of positive tests in asymptomatic patients hold any relevance other than to say.... see the numbers going up.

It focuses the wrong set of data point.

DoninDel 08-11-2020 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2ata (Post 622374)
asymptomatic carriers really have no clinical significance other than to say that they have an infection.

Except that asymptomatic carriers can infect other people - that is why it is good to know.

piper6909 08-11-2020 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoninDel (Post 622377)
Except that asymptomatic carriers can infect other people - that is why it is good to know.

Exactly! To curb the spread you need to first know who the carriers are and perform contact tracing. This is precisely where we have failed miserably.

2ata 08-11-2020 12:16 PM

I'm not here to argue points.

I stopped in to provide real world data from direct experience. You all are clearly entitled to discuss numbers, tracing, whatever as you see fit. I'm just not interested as I deal with this regularly.

Enjoy your discussion gentlemen.

piper6909 08-11-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2ata (Post 622382)
I'm not here to argue points.

I stopped in to provide real world data from direct experience. You all are clearly entitled to discuss numbers, tracing, whatever as you see fit. I'm just not interested as I deal with this regularly.

Enjoy your discussion gentlemen.

2ata, I appreciate your input and more importantly I appreciate your efforts on the front lines. :cheers:

2ata 08-11-2020 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piper6909 (Post 622387)
2ata, I appreciate your input and more importantly I appreciate your efforts on the front lines. :cheers:

No problem.

:cheers:

Starter986 08-12-2020 04:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2ata (Post 622402)
No problem.

:cheers:

I won't say anything even though it's after 5.

nicecar 08-12-2020 07:00 PM

wrong section right quote
 
QUOTE=itsnotanova;614331]Nope, it's attacking everyone. It's inevitable. Young or old, rich or poor, we're all going to get it at some point and some of us are going to die. I don't wan to die, but if it's my time it's my time. We all have to die eventually. Sitting in fear is no way to die for me[/QUOTE]. Here ya go

nicecar 08-12-2020 07:01 PM

986 starter
 
Starter of bs

coreseller 08-12-2020 07:42 PM

Went to call a prospective customer today that I haven't spoke to in a couple of years, doing a lot of sales work via telephone for obvious reasons. Called and spoke to his boss who I also have known for several years, found out my original contact died last spring. I knew him (deceased guy) for a couple of decades and he was never a picture of health, a year back his diabetes caught up with him and he had to retire due to health reasons last fall. Poor guy lost a leg, then they cut off again above the knee a few months later, followed that up with a quadruple heart bypass early 2020. Shortly afterwards he had a stroke and somewhat recovered and a month later was put in a nursing home for recovery, pneumonia struck and he died a few days later at the age of 52, official cause of death was listed as Covid, mentioned in the obituary, I read it this afternoon on the online local paper. Glean from that what you want, imo the stats are complete BS.

nicecar 08-12-2020 08:45 PM

bs
 
I meant bs in respect to name calling , finger pointing nit picking wording etc..as far as the stats and virus and politics..._________________________?

husker boxster 08-12-2020 08:46 PM

Coreseller - so sorry to hear about your friend. 52 is way too young. Not surprised about the COD.

Omaha has recently been added to the govt list of hot spots for new cases. But it was discovered the numbers were being fudged. If you test positive, you undergo many more repeat tests until you get 2 negatives consecutively to be considered cured. However, until you get the 2 negatives, each positive test is registered as a "new" case. That's very creative but not very accurate.

Why is it you never hear of cases being under-counted, but always over-counted? If you can't trust the numbers, how can you believe the data?

coreseller 08-13-2020 02:50 AM

Thanks Husker. He was far from a close friend but you're right, 52 is way too young.

Strangely enough I did talk to a close friend yesterday who's a 30 year veteran of our city's fire department. All personnel of that fire department were tested for Covid in March / April, just under 1000 people. There was not one positive test result, all came back negative. I honestly don't know what to think of that lol.

I'm certainly not a Covid denier, it's just that I'm very skeptical of the stats and the way they are being manipulated and reported.

piper6909 08-13-2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nicecar (Post 622489)
QUOTE=itsnotanova;614331]Nope, it's attacking everyone. It's inevitable. Young or old, rich or poor, we're all going to get it at some point and some of us are going to die. I don't wan to die, but if it's my time it's my time. We all have to die eventually. Sitting in fear is no way to die for me /QUOTE]. Here ya go

Yes, but that's not the time he said he wants to catch it. In a thread that I believe is now deleted, he said that he wants to catch it because he wants to beat something that kills others. Or to that effect. I remember that specific post. And you'll note that in this very thread he did not disagree with my quote of his.

It's not a big deal. I'm just a stickler for accuracy. :cheers:


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