Just as I predicted, gas prices . . .

[Brucelee]

Originally Posted by z12358

Hopefully, we can agree that facts need to be relevant to the point you are trying to make. If not, here's a fact in response: 2+2=4.

The original hypothesis in this thread was whether "someone" with enough motives and means could have influenced the price of unleaded gas to (get ready for facts): go down for months before Nov 7, bottom out right around that date, and then rally straight back up during the following month.

Nobody is questioning that supply and demand ultimately define a price for a market. Hence, anybody who can control one or both variables in that equation, wil be able to affect the price itself. Econ 101.

Z.

The great thing about conspiracy theories is that they can't be DISPROVEN. However, if you go back and trace energy price movements over say, the last 50 yrs) you will see that they are highest in summer (auto driving and A/C demand) then tend to trail down in fall (less driving and less cooling demand) and then they move higher into winter (heating season demand, auto travel around holidays).

Now, since elections in this country happen in November ................................!

[z12358]

Originally Posted by Brucelee

The great thing about conspiracy theories is that they can't be DISPROVEN. However, if you go back and trace energy price movements over say, the last 50 yrs) you will see that they are highest in summer (auto driving and A/C demand) then tend to trail down in fall (less driving and less cooling demand) and then they move higher into winter (heating season demand, auto travel around holidays).

Now, since elections in this country happen in November ................................!

The pattern I described refers to the movement in unleaded gas futures contracts for most (if not all) delivery months (one, for example, being the contract for delivery in Jan 2007). What you described is a pattern that already is reflected in the term structure of that market (i.e. in the spreads between prices of contracts with different delivery months) which has been pretty constant and non-arbitrageable for a decade now. There's no particular seasonal reason for the Jan 2007 contract to dip into, bottom out at, and rally back after Nov 7, 2006.

Z.

[Steve Fine]

The bottom line: "we are still not using anywhere near 100% capacity of existing refineries."

Environmental Regulations aren't to blame for the high price of gas. Increasing world demand and a looming shortage of cheap to refine crude oil, along with concerns about the vulnerablity of some of the leading supplers have driven the price of crude up to stay, maybe they will go down a bit, but the long-term outlook is for higher prices.

Irronically, the Iraq war has also raised the price of crude too.

Concerns about global warming will most likley (if humanity is smart enough) lead to taxes on activities that release carbon into the atmosphere.

[MNBoxster]

Originally Posted by Steve Fine

The bottom line: "we are still not using anywhere near 100% capacity of existing refineries."... Concerns about global warming will most likley (if humanity is smart enough) lead to taxes on activities that release carbon into the atmosphere.

Hi,

You make a very good point. Many on this board aren't convinced of Global Warming. I remain somewhat skeptical as well, I don't think all the science has weighed in yet.

But, the disruption to the Carbon Cycle is definitely real and very measurable. For instance, Gasoline (at 72°) weighs 6.25lbs./gal. Gasoline is also composed of about 80% Carbon. This means that for every gallon of gasoline you consume, you are putting 5 lbs. (80% of 6.25) of Carbon into the atmosphere, think of throwing a 5 lb. bag of charcoal out the window every 17-21 miles!

Now whether this is effecting Global Warming or not is debatable, but certainly it is having some effect...

Happy Motoring!... Jim'99