Alright... my local dealer charges $185 for the key and $85-92 for the programming (I got a range when I called... don't know why.)
I'm inclined to spend the extra $35/key vs. buying from a guy on ebay to rule out any "oh, that's an aftermarket part and we can't support it" argument.
But I'll continue looking to see if I get a better answer from an independent shop or perhaps locksmith. If I learn something great, I'll pass it along here, for sure!