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This is one of those emotional arguments where there really isn't a right answer. I have no doubt that engineering advances will produce a car that shifts faster and outperforms even the most talented manual shifters. Some say that has happened already. And there are those who just will not, or cannot, be bothered with the "distraction" of shifting. And there are environments where shifting is just a pain in the butt, like stop and go rush hour commute.
But I disagree with Ronzi. Even if he were just getting his driver's license instead of his medicare card, the manual transmission will outlive him. There are two main reasons for this. First, manuals are still hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars cheaper than sticks. To many people it is the difference in owning a car or riding the bus (as we who are financially fortunate enough to own porsches may sometimes forget).
But, more importantly, to many it is an aesthetic and visceral choice. Unlike the transition from lp's to cd's, there are qualities in a manual that people desire. I agree with eslai in that there is a certain satisfaction in making your vehicle perform the way you want it to. It makes you feel more engaged to the car and more aware of the driving experience. And people will continue to pay to have that experience even if it no longer provides a performance advantage. And I say this as someone who drove an automatic my entire life until I bought my first porsche two years ago. Yes, I have an SUV with an automatic for those times when the practicality of the car is paramount. But I will forever also have a manual sportscar (hopefully a porsche) for those times when I want to have FUN driving.
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