OT: Buying GM Stock, a steal at $2?

[gerrygug]

If they go Chapter 11 you lose $400.00
If the stock rises to $30.00 you make $5,600.00
Odds are they will go Chapter 11 to break the Union so they can reemerge with a more competitive labor situation. Hope you win, but my money is on bankruptcy.

[Brucelee]

If you want cheap stocks, there are plenty that have no risk of going Chapter 11. Alcoa, Dow Chemical, Altrea, Harley Davidson to name a few.

International Paper, RR Donnelly.

I am not buying GM. I think 11 is in their future.

Ford is OK and pretty cheap.

[coreseller]

Typically Chapter 11 relegates common stockholders to go to the back of the bus when it comes to who recoups what. Dependant upon the appointed judge, typically creditors, bondholders, pension plans, employees, etc. will see monies before you would as a stockholder. I would view it as playing the lotto, except with a MUCH lower payout if you hit. GM stock IMO is a guaranteed loss.

[Perfectlap]

wow you are brave. I hop you put a tight stop on that order.
In a bear market, the rule is not to go long until the stock has bounced off its lowest. A real bottom comes and goes quickly. We see no evidence of that.

If you're bargain hunting there are some tempting stocks, particularly in energy and agricluture (fertilzers) and maybe ceratin techs. But I wouldn't touch autos or banking unless it's to sell short and cover quickly. Those are falling knives with some potential big time disasters coming soon.

p.s.
I'm not buying and holding a single stock. All short term buys. I'm giving hard thought to going 50% in gold ETFs and the rest in T-bills in my retirement accounts as well. If GM goes under their will be a ripple effect through the entire S&P.

[Ofishbein]

Originally Posted by Brucelee

I am not buying GM. I think 11 is in their future.

Ford is OK and pretty cheap.

I agree. If - and it's a big IF - I were going to buy any US auto stock it would be Ford since I think they have the best chance for survival. They might even pick up some market share from the die-hard buy-American-or-walk contingent once the shakeout is over.

Unfortunately, I think GM and Chrysler are already dead but just don't know enough to lie down yet. Unless the UAW is willing to take big concessions, I afraid that these bailouts are just postponing the inevitable.

[jmatta]

Glad you didn't risk much investment...my bet is on BK filing. I've already lost more money than I'll probably recoup in my lifetime...why throw more away?

Hopefully, someone will save Saab in the meantime.

[Lil bastard]

The only thing which will save the General and the Pentagram in the long run is a Chptr.11, disolution of the UAW and Job Bank and a restructuring of their Healthcare and Pension programs.

These two companies have annual union payrolls of about $14B. But they have combined contributions to Healthcare of about $60B, and Pension pymnts. of about $14B (or almost 5 times more than actual payroll itself). The Job Bank, setup in the past to resolve a union arbitration, provides that if any UAW employee is permanently laid off, they receive 85% of their former salary for life (with COLAs!!!), regardless if they ever find other work! The Union is NEVER going to make these concessions voluntarily. Under a restructuring, they won't have much choice.

All these costs are either passed to you each time you buy their products, or as has more been the case, stifles their R&D committments. This has been the reason, much more than alleged stodgy thinking in the Boardroom, that has allowed so many foreign car makers to sieze their market share over the years.

[tboyer]

GM Craters! Stopped at 1.71, lost about hundred bucks, the only winner here is Sharebuilder.com :-) Appears that investors are worried that GM may convert a sizeable amount of debt into equity stock, not exactly sure what that means but it doesn't sound good.

[Lil bastard]

Sorry for your news. It could be linked to the fact that SAAB, a GM subsidiary filed today for Bankrupcy Protection. The Market, I believe sees this as just the beginning.

[ekam]

So what made you buy GM stock?

[jmatta]

Originally Posted by tboyer

Appears that investors are worried that GM may convert a sizeable amount of debt into equity stock, not exactly sure what that means but it doesn't sound good.

Converting debt into equity is a fairly common resolution when a troubled company attempts to restructure. The process removes the debt from a company's balance sheet and converts it to net equity, diluting the existing shareholders. In the long run, the original debt holders get fair value as the company becomes profitable in the future. The problem here is there's so much debt, the holders essentially get stake in a company that's going down anyway (% ownership of nothing still equals nothing) and would likely recoup zero.

Obama will likely write the check to GM and it's suppliers to keep the house of cards from collapsing and appease the unions which showed strong support during his candidacy.

[Brucelee]

Originally Posted by jmatta

Converting debt into equity is a fairly common resolution when a troubled company attempts to restructure. The process removes the debt from a company's balance sheet and converts it to net equity, diluting the existing shareholders. In the long run, the original debt holders get fair value as the company becomes profitable in the future. The problem here is there's so much debt, the holders essentially get stake in a company that's going down anyway (% ownership of nothing still equals nothing) and would likely recoup zero.

Obama will likely write the check to GM and it's suppliers to keep the house of cards from collapsing and appease the unions which showed strong support during his candidacy.

Debt holders get preference over shareholders in a liquidation. Hence, most debt guys won't do this. Moreover, even if GM can come out of Chapt 11, I think the equity would be so diliuted, it would be a penny deal for them.

Originally Posted by Lil bastard

All these costs are either passed to you each time you buy their products, or as has more been the case, stifles their R&D committments. This has been the reason, much more than alleged stodgy thinking in the Boardroom, that has allowed so many foreign car makers to sieze their market share over the years.

very well said, lilbastard. The UAW is pushing hard to promote the idea that if GM flies, the car industry, and the United States are dead. Truth is, filing for bankruptcy doesn't end the company. Look at Delta.

If we keep giving GM bailout money, you and I are being forced to pay someone elses retirement fund...and here I was thinking we won the cold war against communism...

[Brucelee]

Reagan must be spinning in his grave!

[Jaxonalden]

You know whats amazing, all this talk about the Unions was known, known by all of us. The old saying, "Never bite the hand that feeds you" well, in the world of the UAW they didn't just bite, they ripped, chewed and swallowed the hand that fed them. And now they should all stave because of that BUT, they have an ace in the hole. A back door that's in place, and all it cost them was their vote! Now Obama is coming to the rescue to pay back the campaign promise for their support. A bailout that will secure the Union's bottom line and then the Automotive Big Two can tank, but not until the Union gets theirs.

And there isn't a damn thing we can do about it.

[Blue-S]

If GM, Ford or Chrysler had the brand equity to charge the absurd prices that Porsche does for cars and service parts, they would be in a better financial position. Just a thought.

As for the UAW jobs bank, that appears to be on the way out. The two-tier wage structure should help to bring the Detroit 3 close to wage parity with the "transplant" manufacturers, as long as they can make the VEBA work. See this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajeONmi6OjAw&refer=home

[brp987]

Originally Posted by Fred Demara

If we keep giving GM bailout money, you and I are being forced to pay someone elses retirement fund...and here I was thinking we won the cold war against communism...

If I purchase whatever widget it is that you produce, am I not paying your wage with which you fund your retirement savings? As well as your kids soccer balls, cat food, and even boxster parts? It's just that GM employees have a thing called a pension that you can point to and say Aha! There it is!

Originally Posted by brp987

If I purchase whatever widget it is that you produce, am I not paying your wage with which you fund your retirement savings?

that's the point...the reason GM needs a bailout is because no one was purchasing the "widget". In capitalism, we vote on a companies success with our dollars. Overwhelmingly, Americans, and the world have voted GM out of the car making business. And in a capitalist system, when you file chapter 11, your pension is done. No rights, no wrong, no moral judgements - it's just the set of rules that define a fair market.

When the fed steps in and (against the majority of Americas wishes) MAKES us responsible for GM's success, when they have failed miserably, that is called communism.