Woot! Got the transmission off without dropping it on the floor or on my head.
Pretty clear I have had a leaky rear main seal for a while. Looking at my IMS cover, it looks like I have the double row bearing - even though it's less likely to fail than the single row, since I have the motor open anyway I'll replace that too.
Getting the transmission off was very straight forward once I obtained a 10MM triple square bit. A pox on the engineers who decided to put that particular fastener in the transmission.