I am gonna go with water pump/thermo. I went through a bad water pump a couple years ago and a leaking expend tank just last month and it looks like the first problem more than the second. However, it is super easy to pull up the carpet and board just to check, not to mention just buying a new cap and screwing it on. I am assuming you are on the wrong side of PA, but if you are near me, I am willing to help.
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