a little update - I suspected it was the brake light switch, and I was right. I ordered a new one from Pelican Parts.
Incidentally, I did not even install it - all I did was make sure the original switch was really pushed in good, and sort of moved it around a bit. That seems to have worked, I have not gotten the light on since, and if I do, I'll have the new switch ready.
Here's basically how I knew it was the switch: Light came on. I touched the switch, and then the light would come on right away, like never before. Then I touched the switch again, and made sure it was well seated. Light never came on again.
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