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This could be several things. Perhaps, your infrared sensor is beginning to fail. Less likely one of the sensors that detects motion might be going. It's really hard to know.
If you have a Durametric cable, you should start by looking for any stored diagnostic codes for the alarm system. This will give you some insight into what part(s) of the system might be triggering the alarm.
If you don't have a diagnostic cable, see if your local dealer or an independent shop will simply read the codes for you at a nominal or no charge. They should be able to read these in less than 10 minutes. If you post the codes here, people can tell you what they mean.
In my recent case, my central locking system would only act up on sunny days after the car was parked in sunlight. It had six or seven codes that didn't pin down the problem, but the overarching code suggested that the door locks were acting differently. By luck, I was able to narrow it down to the passenger side locking mechanism.
Good luck
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