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http://986forum.com/forums/364566-post28.html |
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The total failure rates - dual 1% and single 8% - were provided during the discovery process of the IMS class action lawsuit. The 7% is the incremental difference between to two.
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They leave out the mountain of cars Porsche had no dealing with with post warranty where owners were entirely on their own. There are far too many variables left out to put any weight behind the percentages in the Porsche numbers beyond that single bearing cars fail far more often than dual row. Its pure guessing to attempt to decipher the technical cause based on the imprecise degree of separation. For instance a dual row bearing car may catch up to a single row bearing car in terms of probability of failure if given enough time or mileage without addressing the bearing. I can not think of a more difficult statistical probability to pin down due to the infinite number of underlying variables. Its like parachute jumping over Normandy in WWII. |
OK, think of the 1% and 8% as lower bounds on actual rates across all cars.
It doesn't change my points. They address the situation where the IMS bearing fails first, which leads to subsequent damage of other engine parts. I do recognize, however, there are a number of failure modes where another part fails first, such as a chain rail breaking, that subsequently leads to the IMS bearing destroying itself as a consequence. |
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I see. Thanks.
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Would it be my best interest to "Exclude Myself" instead of "Object" to the Class Action Settlement when my 2003 with 80k miles has been "placed in service" (registered) for more than 10 years?
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For example, if Porsche used just one-fourth of all actual dual row failures when calculating its reported rate, which is very likely the case, then one can say with 95% certainty that the actual failure rate for all dual row cars lies somewhere between 0.9% and 1.1%. Moreover, if Porsche used just one-sixth of all actual single row failures when calculating its rate, which is even more likely the case, one can say with 95% confidence that the actual rate of single row failures lies somewhere between 7.6% and 8.4%. These differences - 1% versus 0.9% to 1.1% and 8% versus 7.6% to 8.4% - are just too small to disregard the reported Porsche numbers. |
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Sent you a PM
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To me the main proble with analyzing these stats for 'beyond general' analysis is that this is a dynamic failure, it's not like a product testing for light bulb where an item is subjected to the exact same rigors accross each test sample. Every test of the IMS bearing (driver habits) is different to the next test with no way of measuring that variance. |
The Porsche reported numbers are based on a sample of all IMS failures occurring in all 986s up through the 2005 model year. A statistical analysis of that information can reveal the range of possible failure rates for all Boxsters regardless of whether they were reported to Porsche on not. The ranges in my earlier note reflect the results of that statistical analysis.
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I think someone mentioned objecting through Email instead of writing and posting a letter. Since I'm a lazy bum I'd like to know how I'm supposed to do that.
My objection is against the 10 years max age of the car and against the pathetic 25% reimbursement when the car is bought used. |
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