When Will 2009 Used Boxster Prices Take A Dive?
 

Holding out for a PDK, requesting opinions on when folks believe that the 2009 used CPO cars will begin to show significant drop off from retail (or new) pricing.

TIA

I speculate they'll drop like a friggin' rock when sneak peek photos of the all-new Boxster design is released in 2011... for MY2012. They'll really drop if the new design looks like the design I saw on the cover of Road and Track two years ago... it looked like a cross between a boxster and a Carrera GT. A wonderful looking car.

Before an all-new model appears, I'm guessing the drop will be the same as previous model years. They really start to lose value when they're 30+ months old.

I'd say now, since we are moving into the off driving season (aka winter) and the 2010's are in port. But there can't be that many to choose from since I doubt many are coming back in off lease yet.

And "flippers" have only had them about 1 year. You need to find a seller, selling under duress ($$$ reasons).

They'll drop again big in the fall of 2010.

IMHO, Porsce makes very small and subtle changes between model years and model changes. So, I don't expect anything major for 2012. Unless Porsche changes significantly under the VW flag & ownership.

Depreciation for average luxury cars is a half life of 3 years. That means in 3 years it should be half its value as it was new.

As far as when prices will "dip" significantly, I predict it will be when the minor upgrade will be announced for the car. For instance, because in 2000 the 986 received a small upgrade of a rear glass window and an "S" model, a lot of the market headed out to buy that, and the price for older Boxsters dropped as a consequence.

I read somewhere that throughout the year the price of cars stays relatively the same, because car dealers pay manufacturers way before a car actually arrives at the lot.

I'll be looking for a 50% depreciated 2009 Cayman S PDK.

In case you folks missed it, it was Motortrend's Best Driver's Car in the most recent issue - the reviewers essentially agreeing that it is one of the best sports cars ever made.

Biggest drop in value happens the day it's driven off the lot. Course, it depends what you consider 'a dive'. You probably have a price in mind. Perhaps $40K, or $30K or even $20K. All of those prices will happen, just a matter of time. The half life of 3 years is probably pretty accurate. $20K will come in roughly 5-7 years (depending on many factors).

That is very true, the moment you drive off the lot the car loses anywhere from 10-30% of its value. This is simply because the average American believes a used car is a broken car, even if that is not the case. In addition, we see a lot of "why should I buy a 2010 used when I can get a 2010 new with all my options and colors on it?"

I'm kind of in the same boat. I test drove both the PDK and manual and while I'm a diehard manual man...I really liked the PDK---tho not the stupid steering wheel buttons.

Can't tell you when they will drop, but keep in mind that they will likely replace the useless steering wheel buttons with the paddles in new 911 Turbo across the PDK board. I bet when that happens, that will help to reduce demand for the current PDK system and hopefully lower prices. But will of course make me salivate for the new paddles... :)

The buttons
 

kinda grow on you and after a while seem like second nature. And a large market for Porsche are repeat buyers and some may have had TIPs that worked the same way. Paddles may become a future option...or people may try to adopt the 911 parts to the 987.

Other side of the (debased) coin...
 

is that the US Peso (err I mean dollar) is dropping as well. So non-US goods will become more expensive. Porsche will probably have to cut production and raise new car prices.

Oh and buy the tires now - before the tariffs on Chinese tires kicks in.

Or, just don't buy tires that are made in China. ;)

There are lots of good tires made in countries other than China, you know.

BC.

that's a good point. Hadn't thought of that. In fact, that's probably the reason they went against all the focus group testing that probably told them to stick with conventional paddles, because they knew they had a loyal following of "Tippies". Finally, this makes sense to me know. thanks! oh crap, I'm hijacking this thread...

uh.....yeah I agree with the posters about the initial drop after purchase. Shouldn't a normal depreciation curve look like an initial steep drop then a slow asymptotic decline over time? (assuming there wasn't a major model change in there that causes a second steep drop?). Any subsequent drops would likely come from the new model change (2011). I would expect PDKs to hold their value better than other models because of it's superiority over tiptronic and even attractiveness to manual tranny users.

Thanks for all the replies, guys.

One factor to be considered is how hard you look at how far are you willing to travel to get the right CPO 2009 and the lowest associated pricing. I have to travel to do so only because the a$$clowns at my local SW FL dealership think their poo doesn't stink.

For me, paddles don't hold a great deal of interest since my car will be 75% auto anyway. I am leaning to a Boxster to enjoy the wind and sun of Florida and the cheaper pricing :dance:Solves the wifey problem too. This adds to my need to travel as everyday is nearly a convertible day Ft. Myers, well, when it isn't pouring like the 40 day in biblical Egypt. :eek:

I am betting that I can find one in the < $35K range before the year is out.

I hope. :D

I honestly bid you good luck, I hear new they are going out for more than 60k with PDK. It will be quite the dip to be under to almost half that.

This here is the cheapest used Boxster nationwide on Yahoo Autos that has PDK installed:

$47,500
And at that price, getting it under 35k in half a year will be quite the achievement.

Thanks Lordblood; I imagine the sales, sale $$$ and the numbers of 2010 deliveries will be an influence and how much, who really knows by Jan 2010?

If Porsche changes over to F1 paddles for 2010 like they will for the 911 turbo that might actually help depreciate the value of the early PDK models as well? The push button PDK's would be considered less desirable thus less valuable I would imagine.

This could certainly cause a nice drop in 09 values, unfortunately, the paddles will be so much more desirable you'd then want a 2010 model!