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I went through the same thing last year
At the end of the day once you settle on the car you want the pricing will shake itself out... Once I decided that I wanted an "S" with <25k miles and just shopped that range of cars I could smell what was a decent price and what wasn't.
I also discovered you can tell a hell of a lot by standing next to and driving these cars - some people drive them hard and some people don't - some treat them like their first born child and others treat them like daily drivers and run them through carwashes and have scrapes and dings. The differences are worth big bucks in my opinion.
You can knock the CPO program for the premium they charge - but at least at the dealership where I bought you can be 1000% assured they are selling you a primo car at a fair price. I bought my car from the guy who sold it to the first owner the first time around and handed me a complete set of service records. I knew I was paying a little more (emphasis on little - probably $2k - $3k over what I could get on a private deal) but factor in the cost of third party warranty and some of the other peace of mind dealing with a (good) dealership and I think was well worth it.
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